1. What is the Race Prediction Formula?

The race prediction formula estimates your finish time for a target distance based on your performance at a known distance. It accounts for the non-linear relationship between distance and time in endurance events.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the race prediction formula:

Where:

• \( T1 \) — Known time for distance D1 (hours)
• \( D1 \) — Known distance (miles)
• \( D2 \) — Target distance (miles)
• \( T2 \) — Predicted time for distance D2 (hours)

Explanation: The exponent 1.06 accounts for the fact that pace slows slightly as distance increases, making the relationship non-linear.

3. Importance of Race Prediction

Details: Accurate race prediction helps athletes set appropriate pace goals, plan training, and estimate finish times for new distances.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter your known time in hours, known distance in miles, and target distance in miles. Use recent race times for best accuracy.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: How accurate is this prediction formula?
A: It's reasonably accurate for most runners, especially for similar distances. Accuracy decreases when predicting very different distances.

Q2: What's the best race distance to use for prediction?
A: Use a race distance closest to your target distance for best results (e.g., use 10K to predict half-marathon).

Q3: Why the exponent of 1.06?
A: Research shows this exponent best accounts for the slowing pace at longer distances for most runners.

Q4: Does this work for all distances?
A: Works best for distances between 5K and marathon. Less accurate for very short sprints or ultramarathons.

Q5: How should I adjust for terrain differences?
A: The formula assumes similar conditions. Adjust manually for significant elevation changes or trail vs road.